Global catastrophic risks edited by nick bostrom / edited by Nick Bostrom, Milan M. âCirkoviâc
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| رقم التسجيلة | 4864 |
| نوع المادة | book |
| ردمك | 9780198570509 |
| رقم الطلب |
GB5014.G54 |
| العنوان | Global catastrophic risks edited by nick bostrom / edited by Nick Bostrom, Milan M. âCirkoviâc |
| بيانات النشر | Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008. |
| الوصف المادي | xxii, 554 p : 24 cm |
| ملاحظات |
Includes bibliographical references and index |
| المحتويات / النص |
يوجد محتوى |
| المستخلص |
A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again. In Global Catastrophic Risks, 26 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues--policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields. |
| المواضيع | Natural disastersDisastersRisk assessment |
| شخص | Bostrom, NickâCirkoviâc, Milan M |
| LDR | 00115cam a22002053a 4500 |
| 020 | |a 9780198570509 |
| 050 | |a GB5014.G54 |
| 245 | |a Global catastrophic risks edited by nick bostrom / |c edited by Nick Bostrom, Milan M. âCirkoviâc |
| 260 | |a Oxford |b Oxford University Press, |c 2008 |
| 300 | |a xxii, 554 p.; |c 24 cm |
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index |
| 505 | |a Contents Foreword v Martin J. Rees Acknowledgements xvii 1 Introduction 1 Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Cirkovic 1.1 Why? 1 1.2 Taxonomy and organization 2 1.3 Part I: Background 7 1.4 Part II: Risks from nature 13 1.5 Part III: Risks from unintended consequences 15 1.6 Part IV: Risks from hostile acts 20 1.7 Conclusions and future directions 27 Part I Background 31 2 Long-term astrophysical processes 33 Fred C. Adams 2.1 Introduction: physical eschatology 33 2.2 Fate of the Earth 34 2.3 Isolation of the local group 36 2.4 Collision with Andromeda 36 2.5 The end of stellar evolution 38 2.6 The era of degenerate remnants 39 2.7 The era of black holes 41 2.8 The Dark Era and beyond 41 2.9 Life and information processing 43 2.10 Conclusion 44 Suggestions for further reading 45 References 45 3 Evolution theory and the future of humanity 48 Christopher Wills 3.1 Introduction 48 3.2 The causes of evolutionary change 49 3.3 Environmental changes and evolutionary changes 50 3.3.1 Extreme evolutionary changes 51 3.3.2 Ongoing evolutionary changes 53 3.3.3 Changes in the cultural environment 55 3.4 Ongoing human evolution 61 3.4.1 Behavioural evolution 61 3.4.2 The future of genetic engineering 63 3.4.3 The evolution of other species, including those on which we depend. 64 3.5 Future evolutionary directions 65 3.5.1 Drastic and rapid climate change without changes in human behaviour 65 3.5.2 Drastic but slower environmental change accompanied by changes in human behaviour 66 3.5.3 Colonization of new environments by our species 67 Suggestions for further reading 68 References 68 4 Millennial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats 72 James J. Hughes 4.1 Introduction 72 4.2 Types of millennialism 73 4.2.1 Premillennialism 73 4.2.2 Amillennialism 74 4.2.3 Post-millennialism 75 4.3 Messianism and millenarianism 76 4.4 Positive or negative teleologies: utopianism and apocalypticism 76 4.5 Contemporary techno-millennialism 78 4.5.1 The singularity and techno-millennialism 78 4.6 Techno-apocalypticism 80 4.7 Symptoms of dysfunctional millennialism in assessing future scenarios 82 4.8 Conclusions 84 Suggestions for further reading 85 References 85 5 Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks 90 Eliezer Yudkowsky 5.1 Introduction 90 5.2 Availability 91 5.3 Hindsight bias 92 5.4 Black Swans 93 5.5 The conjunction fallacy 94 5.6 Confirmation bias 97 5.7 Anchoring, adjustment, and contamination 100 5.8 The affect heuristic 103 5.9 Scope neglect 104 5.10 Calibration and overconfidence 106 5.11 Bystander apathy 108 5.12 A final caution 110 5.13 Conclusion 111 Suggestions for further reading 114 References 114 6 Observation selection effects and global catastrophic risks 119 Milan M. Cirkovic 6.1 Introduction: anthropic reasoning and global risks 119 6.2 Past-future asymmetry and risk inferences 120 6.2.1 A simplified model 121 6.2.2 Anthropic overconfidence bias 123 6.2.3 Applicability class of risks 125 6.2.4 Additional astrobiological information 127 6.3 Doomsday Argument 128 6.4 Fermi's paradox. 130 6.4.1 Fermi's paradox and GCRs 133 6.4.2 Risks following from the presence of extraterrestrial intelligence 134 6.5 The Simulation Argument 137 6.6 Making progress in studying observation selection effects 139 Suggestions for further reading 140 References 140 7 Systems-based risk analysis. 145 Yacov Y. Haimes 7.1 Introduction 145 7.2 Risk to interdependent infrastructure and sectors of the economy 147 7.3 Hierarchical holographic modelling and the theory of scenario structuring 149 7.3.1 Philosophy and methodology of hierarchical holographic modelling 149 7.3.2 The definition of risk 150 7.3.3 Historical perspectives 150 7.4 Phantom system models for risk management of emergent multi-scale systems 152 7.5 Risk of extreme and catastrophic events 154 7.5.1 The limitations of the expected value of risk 154 7.5.2 The partitioned multi-objective risk method 155 7.5.3 Risk versus reliability analysis 158 Suggestions for further reading 161 References 161 8 Catastrophes and insurance 163 Peter Taylor 8.1 Introduction 163 8.2 Catastrophes 165 8.3 What the business world thinks. 167 8.4 Insurance 168 8.5 Pricing the risk 171 8.6 Catastrophe loss models 172 8.7 What is risk? 175 8.8 Price and probability 178 8.9 The age of uncertainty 178 8.10 New techniques 179 8.10.1 Qualitative risk assessment 179 8.10.2 Complexity science 180 8.10.3 Extreme value statistics 180 8.11 Conclusion: against the gods? 180 Suggestions for further reading 181 References 181 9 Public policy towards catastrophe 183 Richard A. Posner References 199 Part II Risks from nature 201 10 Super-volcanism and other geophysical processes of catastrophic import 203 Michael R. Rampino 10.1 Introduction 203 10.2 Atmospheric impact of a super-eruption 204 10.3 Volcanic winter 205 10.4 Possible environmental effects of a super-eruption 207 10.5 Super-eruptions and human population 209 10.6 Frequency of super-eruptions 210 10.7 Effects of a super-eruptions |
| 520 | |a A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again. In Global Catastrophic Risks, 26 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues--policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields. |
| 650 | |a Risk assessment |
| 650 | |a Disasters |
| 650 | |a Natural disasters |
| 700 | |a âCirkoviâc, Milan M |
| 700 | |a Bostrom, Nick |
| 910 | |a libsys:recno,4864 |
| العنوان | الوصف | النص |
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