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Global catastrophic risks edited by nick bostrom / edited by Nick Bostrom, Milan M. âCirkoviâc

عدد النسخ: 1 عدد النسخ المعارة : 0 عدد النسخ المتاحة للاعارة : 1
رقم التسجيلة 4864
نوع المادة book
ردمك 9780198570509
رقم الطلب

GB5014.G54

العنوان Global catastrophic risks edited by nick bostrom / edited by Nick Bostrom, Milan M. âCirkoviâc
بيانات النشر Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008.
الوصف المادي xxii, 554 p : 24 cm
ملاحظات

Includes bibliographical references and index

المحتويات / النص

Contents Foreword v Martin J. Rees Acknowledgements xvii 1 Introduction 1 Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Cirkovic 1.1 Why? 1 1.2 Taxonomy and organization 2 1.3 Part I: Background 7 1.4 Part II: Risks from nature 13 1.5 Part III: Risks from unintended consequences 15 1.6 Part IV: Risks from hostile acts 20 1.7 Conclusions and future directions 27 Part I Background 31 2 Long-term astrophysical processes 33 Fred C. Adams 2.1 Introduction: physical eschatology 33 2.2 Fate of the Earth 34 2.3 Isolation of the local group 36 2.4 Collision with Andromeda 36 2.5 The end of stellar evolution 38 2.6 The era of degenerate remnants 39 2.7 The era of black holes 41 2.8 The Dark Era and beyond 41 2.9 Life and information processing 43 2.10 Conclusion 44 Suggestions for further reading 45 References 45 3 Evolution theory and the future of humanity 48 Christopher Wills 3.1 Introduction 48 3.2 The causes of evolutionary change 49 3.3 Environmental changes and evolutionary changes 50 3.3.1 Extreme evolutionary changes 51 3.3.2 Ongoing evolutionary changes 53 3.3.3 Changes in the cultural environment 55 3.4 Ongoing human evolution 61 3.4.1 Behavioural evolution 61 3.4.2 The future of genetic engineering 63 3.4.3 The evolution of other species, including those on which we depend. 64 3.5 Future evolutionary directions 65 3.5.1 Drastic and rapid climate change without changes in human behaviour 65 3.5.2 Drastic but slower environmental change accompanied by changes in human behaviour 66 3.5.3 Colonization of new environments by our species 67 Suggestions for further reading 68 References 68 4 Millennial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats 72 James J. Hughes 4.1 Introduction 72 4.2 Types of millennialism 73 4.2.1 Premillennialism 73 4.2.2 Amillennialism 74 4.2.3 Post-millennialism 75 4.3 Messianism and millenarianism 76 4.4 Positive or negative teleologies: utopianism and apocalypticism 76 4.5 Contemporary techno-millennialism 78 4.5.1 The singularity and techno-millennialism 78 4.6 Techno-apocalypticism 80 4.7 Symptoms of dysfunctional millennialism in assessing future scenarios 82 4.8 Conclusions 84 Suggestions for further reading 85 References 85 5 Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks 90 Eliezer Yudkowsky 5.1 Introduction 90 5.2 Availability 91 5.3 Hindsight bias 92 5.4 Black Swans 93 5.5 The conjunction fallacy 94 5.6 Confirmation bias 97 5.7 Anchoring, adjustment, and contamination 100 5.8 The affect heuristic 103 5.9 Scope neglect 104 5.10 Calibration and overconfidence 106 5.11 Bystander apathy 108 5.12 A final caution 110 5.13 Conclusion 111 Suggestions for further reading 114 References 114 6 Observation selection effects and global catastrophic risks 119 Milan M. Cirkovic 6.1 Introduction: anthropic reasoning and global risks 119 6.2 Past-future asymmetry and risk inferences 120 6.2.1 A simplified model 121 6.2.2 Anthropic overconfidence bias 123 6.2.3 Applicability class of risks 125 6.2.4 Additional astrobiological information 127 6.3 Doomsday Argument 128 6.4 Fermi's paradox. 130 6.4.1 Fermi's paradox and GCRs 133 6.4.2 Risks following from the presence of extraterrestrial intelligence 134 6.5 The Simulation Argument 137 6.6 Making progress in studying observation selection effects 139 Suggestions for further reading 140 References 140 7 Systems-based risk analysis. 145 Yacov Y. Haimes 7.1 Introduction 145 7.2 Risk to interdependent infrastructure and sectors of the economy 147 7.3 Hierarchical holographic modelling and the theory of scenario structuring 149 7.3.1 Philosophy and methodology of hierarchical holographic modelling 149 7.3.2 The definition of risk 150 7.3.3 Historical perspectives 150 7.4 Phantom system models for risk management of emergent multi-scale systems 152 7.5 Risk of extreme and catastrophic events 154 7.5.1 The limitations of the expected value of risk 154 7.5.2 The partitioned multi-objective risk method 155 7.5.3 Risk versus reliability analysis 158 Suggestions for further reading 161 References 161 8 Catastrophes and insurance 163 Peter Taylor 8.1 Introduction 163 8.2 Catastrophes 165 8.3 What the business world thinks. 167 8.4 Insurance 168 8.5 Pricing the risk 171 8.6 Catastrophe loss models 172 8.7 What is risk? 175 8.8 Price and probability 178 8.9 The age of uncertainty 178 8.10 New techniques 179 8.10.1 Qualitative risk assessment 179 8.10.2 Complexity science 180 8.10.3 Extreme value statistics 180 8.11 Conclusion: against the gods? 180 Suggestions for further reading 181 References 181 9 Public policy towards catastrophe 183 Richard A. Posner References 199 Part II Risks from nature 201 10 Super-volcanism and other geophysical processes of catastrophic import 203 Michael R. Rampino 10.1 Introduction 203 10.2 Atmospheric impact of a super-eruption 204 10.3 Volcanic winter 205 10.4 Possible environmental effects of a super-eruption 207 10.5 Super-eruptions and human population 209 10.6 Frequency of super-eruptions 210 10.7 Effects of a super-eruptions on civilization 211 10.8 Super-eruptions and life in the universe 212 Suggestions for further reading 214 References 214 11 Hazards from comets and asteroids 220 William Napier 11.1 Something like a huge mountain 220 11.2 How often are we struck? 221 11.2.1 Impact craters 221 11.2.2 Near-Earth object searches 224 11.2.3 Dynamical analysis 224 11.3 The effects of impact 227 11.4 The role of dust 229 11.5 Ground truth? 231 11.6 Uncertainties 232 Suggestions for further reading 220 References 220 12 Influence of Supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and cosmic rays on the terrestrial environment 236 Arnon Dar 12.1 Introduction 236 12.2 Radiation threats 237 12.2.1 Credible threats 237 12.2.2 Solar flares 240 12.2.3 Solar activity and global warming 241 12.2.4 Solar extinction. 242 12.2.5 Radiation from supernova explosions 243 12.2.6 Gamma-ray bursts 244 12.3 Cosmic ray threats 246 12.3.1 Earth magnetic field reversals 248 12.3.2 Solar activity, cosmic rays, and global warming 248 12.3.3 Passage through the Galactic spiral arms 249 12.3.4 Cosmic rays from nearby supernovae 250 12.3.5 Cosmic rays from gamma-ray bursts 250 12.4 Origin of the major mass extinctions 252 12.5 The Fermi paradox and mass extinctions 255 12.6 Conclusions 256 References 257 Part III Risks from unintended consequences 259 13 Climate change and global risk 261 David Frame and Myles R. Allen 13.1 Introduction 261 13.2 Modelling climate change 262 13.3 A simple model of climate change 263 13.3.1 Solar forcing 264 13.3.2 Volcanic forcing 265 13.3.3 Anthropogenic forcing 267 13.4 Limits to current knowledge 269 13.5 defining dangerous climate change 272 13.6 Regional climate risk under anthropogenic change 274 13.7 Climate risk and mitigation policy 275 13.8 Discussion and conclusions 277 Suggestions for further reading 278 References 279 14 Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future 282 Edwin Dennis Kilbourne 14.1 Introduction 282 14.2 The baseline: the chronic and persisting burden of infectious disease 282 14.3 The causation of pandemics 284 14.4 The nature and source of the parasites 284 14.5 Modes of microbial and viral transmission 285 14.6 Nature of the disease impact: high morbidity, high mortality, or both 286 14.7 Environmental factors 287 14.8 Human behaviour 288 14.9 Infectious diseases as contributors to other natural catastrophes 288 14.10 Past Plagues and pandemics and their impact on history 289 14.11 Plagues of historical note 290 14.11.1 Bubonic plague: the Black Death 290 14.11.2 Cholera 290 14.11.3 Malaria 291 14.11.4 Smallpox 291 14.11.5 Tuberculosis 292 14.11.6 Syphilis as a paradigm of sexually transmitted infections 292 14.11.7 influenza 293 14.12 Contemporary plagues and pandemics 293 14.12.1 HIV/AIDS 293 14.12.2 influenza 294 14.12.3 HIV and tuberculosis: the double impact of new and ancient threats 294 14.13 Plagues and pandemics of the future 295 14.13.1 Microbes that threaten without infection: the microbial toxins 295 14.13.2 Iatrogenic diseases 295 14.13.3 The homogenization of peoples and cultures 296 14.13.4 Man-made viruses 297 14.14 Discussion and conclusions 297 Suggestions for further reading 299 References 299 15 Artificial Intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk 303 Eliezer Yudkowsky 15.1 Introduction 303 15.2 Anthropomorphic bias 303 15.3 Prediction and design 306 15.4 Underestimating the power of intelligence 308 15.5 Capability and motive 309 15.5.1 Optimization processes 310 15.5.2 Aiming at the target 311 15.6 Friendly Artificial Intelligence 312 15.7 Technical failure and philosophical failure 313 15.7.1 An example of philosophical failure 314 15.7.2 An example of technical failure 315 15.8 Rates of intelligence increase 318 15.9 Hardware 323 15.10 Threats and promises 324 15.11 Local and majoritarian strategies 328 15.12 Interactions of Artificial Intelligence with other technologies 332 15.13 Making progress on Friendly Artificial Intelligence 333 15.14 Conclusion 335 References 338 16 Big troubles, imagined and real 340 Frank Wilczek 16.1 Why look for trouble? 340 16.2 Looking before leaping 341 16.2.1 Accelerator disasters 341 16.2.2 Runaway technologies 351 16.3 Preparing to Prepare 352 16.4 Wondering 353 Suggestions for further reading 355 References 355 17 Catastrophe, social collapse, and human extinction 357 Robin Hanson 17.1 Introduction 357 17.2 What is society? 357 17.3 Social growth 358 17.4 Social collapse 360 17.5 The distribution of disaster 361 17.6 Existential disasters 363 17.7 Disaster policy 366 17.8 Conclusion 369 References 370 Part IV Risks from hostile acts 373 18 The continuing threat of nuclear war 375 Joseph Cirincione 18.1 Introduction 375 18.1.1 US nuclear forces 378 18.1.2 Russian nuclear forces 379 18.2 Calculating Armageddon 380 18.2.1 Limited war 380 18.2.2 Global war 382 18.2.3 Regional war 384 18.2.4 Nuclear winter 384 18.3 The current nuclear balance 386 18.4 The good news about proliferation 390 18.5 A comprehensive approach 391 18.6 Conclusion 393 Suggestions for further reading 395 19 Catastrophic nuclear terrorism: a preventable peril 396 Gary Ackerman and William C. Potter 19.1 Introduction 396 19.2 Historical recognition of the risk of nuclear terrorism 397 19.3 Motivations and capabilities for nuclear terrorism 400 19.3.1 Motivations: the demand side of nuclear terrorism 400 19.3.2 The supply side of nuclear terrorism 405 19.4 Probabilities of occurrence 410 19.4.1 The demand side: who wants nuclear weapons? 410 19.4.2 The supply side: how far have terrorists progressed? 413 19.4.3 What is the probability that terrorists will acquire nuclear explosive capabilities in the future? 416 19.4.4 Could terrorists precipitate a nuclear holocaust by non-nuclear means? 420 19.5 Consequences of nuclear terrorism 421 19.5.1 Physical and economic consequences 421 19.5.2 Psychological, social, and political consequences 423 19.6 Risk assessment and risk reduction 426 19.6.1 The risk of global catastrophe 426 19.6.2 Risk reduction 430 19.7 Recommendations 431 19.7.1 Immediate priorities 431 19.7.2 Long-term priorities 434 19.8 Conclusion 435 Suggestions for further reading 436 References 436 20 Biotechnology and biosecurity 444 Ali Nouri and Christopher F. Chyba 20.1 Introduction 444 20.2 Biological weapons and risks 447 20.3 Biological weapons are distinct from other so-called weapons of mass destruction 448 20.4 Benefits come with risks 449 20.5 Biotechnology risks go beyond traditional virology, micro-and molecular biology 452 20.6 Addressing biotechnology risks 454 20.6.1 Oversight of research 454 20.6.2 'Soft' oversight 456 20.6.3 Multi-stakeholder partnerships for addressing biotechnology risks 456 20.6.4 A risk management framework for de novo DNA synthesis technologies 457 20.6.5 From voluntary codes of conduct to international regulations 458 20.6.6 Biotechnology risks go beyond creating novel pathogens 458 20.6.7 Spread of biotechnology may enhance biological security 459 20.7 Catastrophic biological attacks 460 20.8 Strengthening disease surveillance and response 463 20.8.1 Surveillance and detection 463 20.8.2 Collaboration and communication are essential for managing outbreaks 464 20.8.3 Mobilization of the public health sector 465 20.8.4 Containment of the disease outbreak 466 20.8.5 Research, vaccines, and drug development are essential components of an effective defence strategy 467 20.8.6 Biological security requires fostering collaborations 467 20.9 Towards a biologically secure future 468 Suggestions for further reading 469 References 470 21 Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk 475 Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder 21.1 Nanoscale technologies 476 21.1.1 Necessary simplicity of products 476 21.1.2 Risks associated with nanoscale technologies 477 21.2 Molecular manufacturing 478 21.2.1 Products of molecular manufacturing 480 21.2.2 Nano-built weaponry 481 21.2.3 Global catastrophic risks 482 21.3 Mitigation of molecular manufacturing risks 490 21.4 Discussion and conclusion 492 Suggestions for further reading 493 References 496 22 The totalitarian threat 498 Bryan Caplan 22.1 Totalitarianism: what happened and why it (mostly) ended 500 22.2 Stable totalitarianism 500 22.3 Risk factors for stable totalitarianism 504 22.3.1 Technology 505 22.3.2 Politics 506 22.4 Totalitarian risk management 508 22.4.1 Technology 508 22.4.2 Politics 509 22.5 'What's your p?' 510 Suggestions for further reading 512 References 512

المستخلص

A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again. In Global Catastrophic Risks, 26 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues--policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields.

المواضيع Natural disasters
Disasters
Risk assessment

الأسماء المرتبطة Bostrom, Nick
âCirkoviâc, Milan M